Newton Abbot

Perfect record of 1 win from 1 race, but that's a single victory at Uttoxeter this week and nothing more—the market favourite at 2.42 is betting on raw talent and the Bramley yard's track record (17 winners this season already), not on proven form at hurdles. The risk is real: debut horses are unpredictable, and stepping up in class or distance can expose gaps that one victory can't hide.

Top-rated by 18lbs and built for exactly this ground—he's won 3 of his last 4 races on normal conditions and sits on a two-timer after victories at Worcester and Southwell in the past month. At 5 years old with 17 races under his belt, he's vastly more experienced than anyone else here and boasts the best win rate in the field at roughly 1 in 3; the only real concern is that he's raced just twice in the last fortnight, but that's a minor detail when you're this good and this hot.

A 7-year-old with exactly one career race to his name—he finished fourth at Worcester just 31 days ago in his debut, which is genuinely puzzling at this age and tells you little except that the yard are trying something different. With zero form history, no winning record, and a jockey-trainer pairing meeting for the first time, this is a shot in the dark against five rivals who all have more to show.

Three races, no wins, and a recent third-place here 60 days ago is the highlight of a thin CV that includes a 44-length defeat and a 35-length loss. At 5 years old with so little data, there's genuine uncertainty about whether he belongs in this company, but the odds of 140.0 suggest the market has written him off—and probably with good reason given he hasn't shown anything to trouble the principals.