Newmarket (July)
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National Stud Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)
Starts in
Awaiting result
Turf track
All Runners — sorted by TrackLab Score
Super Value
TrackLab Insight
The wildcard here: lightly raced with just three career starts and a 33% win rate, but he hasn't stepped onto a racetrack in 266 days and has never raced on dry ground in his life. The form line (2-4-1) is respectable, yet returning from a 122-day break onto the fastest going of his career is a serious risk.
Never raced on dry ground
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Absent 266 days (longest in field)
Good Value
TrackLab Insight
Carries the lowest weight and has dropped 2 classes from his usual level, boasting an exceptional 50% win rate from four races and a razor-thin second at Redcar just 32 days ago. However, his jockey and trainer have never won together, and stepping up to Class 3 company after winning at Class 5 is a meaningful jump in difficulty.
Carries lowest weight in field
Drops 2 classes from usual level
TrackLab Insight
Market favourite at 3.35 with a sensational 67% win rate from three races and two straight wins, but like Race To The Stars he's never experienced fast, dry ground — all his races have been on slower conditions. At just 3 years old with minimal racing, he's the least proven at Newmarket on good-to-firm, which is a significant unknown given the field.
Never raced on dry ground
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Market favourite (3.35)
TrackLab Insight
Three straight top-3 finishes show he's knocking on the door, and like Astro King he loves fast ground (1 win from 4 starts), but he's 3lbs lower-rated and hasn't won since April at Windsor — six races without a breakthrough. At a 4-year-old with only ten career races, he's less exposed than Astro King, but his recent form is more consistent than his results.
3 straight top-3 finishes
TrackLab Insight
The only horse in the field to have won at this exact distance, with a respectable 2 wins from 7 races at 1m 4f, and he's a genuine Newmarket specialist (3 wins from 14 races here). The problem is glaring: he has zero wins from 13 attempts on good ground and hasn't won in six races, despite two recent seconds — he's clearly a wet-ground horse being asked to fire on firm.
Lowest rated, 11lbs below average
Only winner at this distance
Has won over this course and distance
Best record at this trip (2 from 7)
TrackLab Insight
Top-rated by 3lbs and the only horse in the field with a proven record on fast, dry ground (2 wins from 8 starts here), yet the market has drifted him out to 20.0 — suggesting a real mismatch between class and odds. His last three runs have been poor, but both previous wins came at this track or York on identical conditions, and the step up to 1m 4f on good-to-firm ground is exactly what his profile needs.
Top rated by 3lbs
Best record on this ground (2 from 7)
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Your pick
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Odds
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The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.
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