Tycoon

The most encouraging sign in the data is what happens when Tycoon is asked to travel a proper distance. Over a mile and three furlongs to a mile and four — that longer, stamina-testing trip — it has won 1 from 4 races, a 25% win rate. Winning 1 in every 4 races at a specific distance is actually a meaningful number; it means when conditions suit, this horse becomes a genuine contender rather than a also-ran. That Windsor victory came over that kind of trip, and it is reasonable to expect that is where its best chance of a second win lies.

Recent form makes for slightly sobering reading — finishing 8th and 6th in two of its last four outings before bouncing back with a pair of third-place finishes. That is the kind of inconsistency that keeps punters and trainers guessing alike. What it is not, however, is a horse in terminal decline: it raced just one day ago and is clearly an active, fit horse in a yard that has sent out 40 winners this season alone. Philippart De Foy is a trainer operating with real momentum right now, and horses in a busy, winning stable tend to be well-placed when their moment arrives. Whether Tycoon can find its Windsor form again is the question — but the ingredients, at the right distance, are clearly there.