Newmarket (July)

Zephyra finished second on her only race outing just 14 days ago at Newmarket, which is an encouraging start — she's the least experienced runner but already proved she can run well at this track. The fact she ran here recently and was beaten only 3.5 lengths by a presumably experienced rival gives her a real chance to improve next time with that experience logged. She's the most interesting longshot in the race.

Grey Tamam raced yesterday and finished eighth, which is a poor sign coming into today's race so soon after — there's no time to recover or improve between runs. Before that eighth-place finish there was a third, but the recent form trend is going backwards, not forwards. This is the weakest pointer in the field right now.

Elpeeare has raced twice and shown steady improvement, finishing fourth last time before that placing third — the kind of learning curve you'd expect from a two-year-old still finding their feet. George Scott's yard is firing this season with 52 winners, and Darragh Keenan has a solid win rate with the trainer, so there's decent support behind the scenes. The drift in the odds from 1.1 to 5.3 suggests the market has cooled on her chances in a competitive maiden field.

Scoot Away is also debuting but has a pedigree built for speed — both sire Havana Grey and dam's sire Iffraaj point to a horse with natural quickness over this six-furlong trip. The trainer James Fanshawe has a strong win rate of roughly 1 in 6 races, which is far better support than most other the yard in the field. Still, 23.0 odds reflect the inherent risk of a first-time runner.