Killarney

No wins yet, but this horse has finished second in both career races — both times at the Curragh, beaten a combined four lengths over two runs. That consistent near-miss form is the most promising record of any horse in the field aside from North Shore. The big question is whether seven months off since that last run affects it, but trainer Willie Mullins and jockey Paul Townend are the best combination in the race, and they rarely run a horse cold.

The most experienced horse in the field by a distance — 21 races compared to a field average of just 6 — but that experience has produced only one win, and the recent form of 4-9-6 does not inspire confidence. The data shows this horse has never won on normal ground, which is exactly the condition on offer today. Hard to get excited at 11/1.

A first-time racer with no form to analyse — what happens today is genuinely unknown. The jockey Danny Gilligan has been in decent nick recently, riding 1 winner from 6 in the last two weeks, which is one of the better recent records among the riders in this field. That is a thin thread to hang hopes on, but it is something at least.

Eight races and not a single top-three finish — that is a winless, placeless career record that sets this horse apart from the field, though not in a good way. Consecutive 11th-place finishes in the last two runs suggest this horse is consistently at the back end of competitive fields. The trainer Noel Meade has been in decent recent form, but even the best trainers need a horse capable of delivering.