Kilbeggan

Gordon Elliott's runner carries the second-best rating here (OR 100), but that's almost cruel — he's never won from eight races and has just three placed finishes to show for it. He finished second here at Kilbeggan just two weeks ago, beaten 14 lengths, so he clearly knows the track but hasn't had the quality to win.

The standout here: he's the only runner with a recent top-level win, having taken a Class 1 race at Lingfield in May — that's genuinely rare company. With a 20 percent win rate from 10 races, he's the form horse on paper, though his last three efforts have been plain 5th-place finishes, and he has no wins on good ground either.

The most experienced runner here with 18 races under his belt, but his form is a real puzzle — he's won three times (all at Dundalk on standard ground) yet arrives here on a poor run with two defeats at Galway. The drift in the odds from 1.1 to 26.0 tells you everything: he's a surface specialist who looks out of his depth on normal ground, and his record on anything quicker than standard is non-existent.

Four races without a win, but she does have one place finish and most importantly a second-place finish here at Kilbeggan nine weeks ago, beaten just 2.5 lengths — the closest thing to recent form in this entire race. She's drifted to 26.0 despite being the form horse, which might be value if she can reproduce that Kilbeggan effort.