The market favourite despite having no wins from four races — punters appear to be banking on that encouraging third-place finish last time being a sign of better things to come. Crucially, this horse has never raced on slow ground before, so today's conditions are an unknown quantity.
Won at this course & distanceWon 2 of last 5Won here 2 timesLoves this ground (67% win rate)Won at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
The standout runner on paper: the only horse in this field to have won at Kempton over this exact distance, doing it twice from three visits here — and both wins came on ground similar to today's slow conditions. Rated below the field average, which means it carries less weight than most rivals, adding to a compelling case as the editorial pick.
Only course winner (2 from 3 here)Only winner at this distanceHas won over this course and distanceBest record on this ground (2 from 3)
Dropping in classWearing cheekpiecesWon 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
The editorial second pick, despite having zero wins from four races — the least proven record among the horses tipped to go well today. Ridden by one of the best jockeys in the sport, and steps up two class levels, which sounds like a risk but could mean it's been competing in tougher races than this.
The lowest-rated horse in the field by some margin — 12 points below the field average — and yet to win from four races. The saving grace is a light weight, and a third-place finish 20 days ago suggests it's in reasonable shape, but it faces a steep task against better-rated rivals.
Lowest rated, 12lbs below averageCarries lowest weight in field
Dropping in classWearing blinkersWon 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
No wins and no placed finishes from four races, and steps up two class levels today, which makes life harder not easier. The slight improvement in finishing positions recently is something, but this looks a tough ask.
Three races, three fourth-place finishes — consistently just off the pace but never threatening to win. The most lightly raced horse in the field and hasn't run for 56 days, so there's genuine uncertainty about where it's at right now.
Wearing tongue strapFresh (92 days off)Won 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
The longest absence in the field at 92 days, and returns to racing with a record of no wins and a best finish of fourth. Three fairly low-key efforts to date give very little to go on, and the extended break adds another layer of uncertainty.
Lightly raced (3 career races)Absent 92 days (longest in field)
Beaten 14 lengths last time out and has only one win from eight races — a modest record that doesn't inspire confidence heading into this. Has shown better form at shorter distances and on faster ground, neither of which applies today on slow ground over a mile and a half.
One of the more successful in the field (1 career wins)
The best win rate in the field at 1 in 3, but those wins came at Wolverhampton — a very different track to today's Kempton polytrack. Ran here 31 days ago and finished sixth, beaten less than a length, which keeps it in the mix, though the blinkers and a big drift in the market are worth noting.
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.