Hexham

She is winless from 15 career races, which is a difficult stat to look past, but she does know this course well — all three of her recent runs have been at Hexham, and she was second here just 17 days ago. The problem is she has tried and failed to win at Hexham six times before, so familiarity clearly hasn't been enough to get her over the line. A claiming jockey and a modest trainer-jockey combination suggest this is not a yard expecting a big performance today.

The most experienced horse in the field by a distance — 42 races compared to a field average of 20 — and crucially, the only runner who has won over this course and distance before. He carries the lowest weight in the race, which is a small advantage, and he was third at Hexham just 17 days ago, showing he arrives in reasonable shape. The big worry is his record on soft ground: zero wins from ten attempts on similar conditions, which makes that course win feel like it came in very different circumstances.

The editorial verdict names this horse as the one to beat, and the form backs that up — a win at Newcastle last month followed by a close third at Kelso just 13 days ago shows he is in decent nick right now. He carries the highest weight in the field and is top-rated by some margin, which tells you the official assessors think he's the best horse here. The concern is today's slightly soft ground: he has won on normal conditions but has never won on anything soft or wet in five attempts.

Nine years old and 25 races in, Kells Priory has only won twice — but there is one relevant bright spot: a solid record on soft ground, winning once from five tries, which is better than most in this field on similar conditions. He has never actually raced on slightly soft ground specifically, so today is a small step into the unknown. Three consecutive finishes outside the top three, including a 17-length beating at Perth last month, make it hard to be enthusiastic despite the experienced Sean Bowen in the saddle.