The clear market favourite and the editorial pick, Scarlet Legend was beaten by just a short head on his only race at Salisbury — as close to winning as you can get without actually doing it. The big unknown is today's wet ground, which he has never encountered before, and his only run came on different conditions. If the ground is not a problem, he looks the most likely winner on form.
Never raced on wet groundLightly raced (1 career races)Market favourite (1.73)
Outback Legend is the second-best price in the market and has shown improvement across two races — from sixth on debut at Nottingham to third at Chester, beaten just two-and-a-half lengths. That Chester run on a conventional turf track is the most relevant piece of form in the field for today's conditions, even if he has never raced on wet ground. He gets the low draw (stall 1), which at this course and distance carries the best historical win rate.
Never raced on wet groundLightly raced (2 career races)
Yafreh finished fourth on his only career run at Leicester, beaten seven-and-a-half lengths, and has never raced on wet ground. One unplaced run gives almost nothing to work with, and he faces more experienced rivals here. The draw in stall 4 is in the low group, which historically performs best at this course and distance, but that is a thin thread to hang any confidence on.
Never raced on wet groundLightly raced (1 career races)
Moonrunner drops down two class levels from his previous races, which is significant and suggests the yard feel he needs easier company to get competitive. He ran third last time out, beaten just over a length, so there are clear signs of progress over his two career races. He has never raced on wet ground, so today's conditions are an unknown quantity.
Drops 2 classes from usual levelNever raced on wet groundLightly raced (2 career races)
Won 0 of last 5Raced here beforeLoves this ground (29% win rate)
TrackLab Insight
By far the most experienced horse in the field with 21 races under his belt, compared to the field average of just four, and he has a genuine edge today: two wins from seven races on wet ground makes him the standout for these conditions. He won a Grade 1 race at Aintree back in 2023, so the talent is real, though his last run — eighth at Hexham — was disappointing. At eight years old and arriving from the jumps, the class crossover is unusual, but the wet ground record is the strongest in the field.
Best record on this ground (2 from 7)Most experienced (21 runs, field avg 4)Best career win rate in field (1 in 5)
Trainer Quotes
Nov 2023
"We were disappointed with with his start at Ayr - he was a bit keen and it was a falsely run race. I didn't think he jumped too badly and he'll have learned a lot from that. He went through the line well and hopefully he'll settle better next time. All's not lost by a long way with him, and we might take him to Musselburgh on Friday. 27-11-23"
Oct 2023
"We're hoping to go to Ayr with him on November 4 and hopefully it'll be just nice ground - good to soft or similar. We're looking forward to him. He won his two bumper starts very well. First time at Musselburgh, there were a couple of talking horses in the race but he soon put them to bed. We gave him aeak and came back for Aintree, where we were fairly confident he'd run a good race. It was a bit of a messy race up the straight and there'll be half a dozen thinking they were unlucky but I'd match him up to any of them again. His schooling has gone well and there's the good race at Aintree on Boxing Day now [formerly Grade 1 Tolworth Novices' Hurdle], which would be an obvious first target if things go to plan. 25-10-23"
Spirit Dreamer ran in the same Salisbury race as stablemate Scarlet Legend 18 days ago, finishing sixth and beaten over 13 lengths — a stark contrast to his yard companion's near-miss. He has never raced on wet ground and has nothing in his single run to suggest he can trouble the principals today. Trained by the same Andrew Balding yard as the favourite, but the form comparison between the two is not flattering.
Never raced on wet groundLightly raced (1 career races)
At five years old, Dartmouth Jet is one of the older horses in this field and has never raced on wet ground — a real concern today given the conditions. His last two runs at Southwell were uninspiring, with an eighth and a sixth, though a third at Ascot earlier shows he can compete at a higher level. Winless in four races on this surface, he arrives with question marks.
One race into his career and Alkaios has little to show for it — a fifth-place finish, beaten nearly eight lengths. He has never raced on wet ground, and this is only his second time out, so there is almost no form to work with. Among the younger three-year-olds in the field, he is one of the least exposed, but that cuts both ways.
Never raced on wet groundLightly raced (1 career races)
A four-year-old making his racecourse debut, so there is genuinely nothing to go on — no form, no clues from previous runs. His breeding (by Sea The Stars) hints at stamina, which could suit this mile-and-a-half trip. First-time runners at this distance on wet ground are always a risk, and at odds of 101, the market is treating him as a complete unknown.
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.