Wearing blinkersFresh (210 days off)Won 2 of last 5Raced here beforeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
The top-rated horse in the field by 4lbs and the clear market favourite, Dreams Adozen has one enormous thing in her favour today: today's wet ground. She wins 3 from 5 races on heavy conditions — a 60% record that dwarfs anything her rivals can show — and her last run was a win. The concern is a seven-month absence, which is the longest layoff of anyone in this field, but the editorial verdict backs her to handle it.
Top rated by 4lbsMost experienced (50 runs, field avg 22)Absent 210 days (longest in field)Market favourite (3.45)
The second-favourite comes in on the back of a win just 26 days ago — the freshest winning form in the field — but there is a significant unknown: this horse has never raced on wet ground before. With Dreams Adozen owning a 60% record in similar conditions, Treasure Islands is essentially being asked to prove something it has never had to prove before.
Wearing blinkersFresh (92 days off)Won 0 of last 5Raced here beforeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
At 12 years old, Torcello is the oldest horse in the field and arrives on the back of three consecutive poor runs — beaten 14 lengths or more in each. The data actually flags this course type as a weakness, with zero wins from eight attempts on left-handed galloping tracks like Haydock, making today's assignment look particularly tough.
The bluntest summary in this field: six years old, 11 races, zero wins. That is the worst career win record of any horse running today, and the recent form — a 15th and a 17th in its last two outings before a seventh last time — does nothing to suggest a change is coming. Hard to make a case for this one.
Wearing tongue strapWon 0 of last 5Raced here beforeWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
Carrying the lowest weight in the field and rated 12lbs below the average, Ebony Maw is the outsider at 11.5 for good reason. The critical issue is a deeply poor record on soft ground — zero wins from 10 attempts — which directly undermines what looks at first like a positive: two wins from eight races on heavy ground. Today's wet conditions look more like a soft-ground test, and on that basis this horse has a significant hill to climb.
Lowest rated, 11lbs below averageCarries lowest weight in fieldBest record at this trip (1 from 6)
Wearing visorWon 1 of last 5Raced here beforeLoves this ground (25% win rate)Won at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
At eight years old, Fleurman is one of the more experienced horses here and arrives in reasonable nick after a third place just 45 days ago. The data flags it as having the best record in this field on wet ground — one win from four attempts — which is meaningful, even if 25% is a modest benchmark compared to Dreams Adozen's dominance in similar conditions. The jockey-trainer combination has managed just one win from 20 races together, which is a quiet concern.
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.