Goodwood
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All Runners — sorted by TrackLab Score
Good Value
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite at 5.7 for good reason: three straight top-3 finishes include a heartbreaking 0.1L second at Ascot just 22 days ago, and Crest Of Fire clearly belongs in this company at just 3 years old. The issue is structural: he's never won on good ground or fast, dry ground across his 9 races, raising the question of whether today's conditions suit a horse that seems to need softer ground to thrive.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Market favourite (5.7)
Good Value
TrackLab Insight
The standout win rate in the field at 33% (2 wins from 6 races) combined with the lowest weight in the race makes Blue Courvoisier genuinely interesting, especially given consistent placed finishes. Yet he's never won on good or good-to-firm ground—today's exact conditions—and his last two Ascot runs (18th and 4th) suggest he may prefer softer, different surfaces than what Goodwood is offering.
Carries lowest weight in field
Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
TrackLab Insight
One of the few proven course winners here (1 win from his solitary Goodwood run) and hitting top form with a 3rd-place finish at Newmarket just three weeks ago. However, Spell Master has never won on good ground and sits at 6.8 odds despite a modest 17% overall win rate, suggesting the market may be overpricing his single course victory.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
TrackLab Insight
A compact 20% win rate and excellent record at this distance (40% at 1m1f-1m2f) make this a genuine contender, yet he's winless in his last four runs—including a troubling 8th at Sandown just 28 days ago. Point of Contact is still fancied at 12.0, but the recent form suggests he's gone stale rather than sharp heading into this race.
Among the fancied runners (12.0)
TrackLab Insight
A solid 20% win rate (roughly 1 in 5 races) backed up by two placed finishes in his last three runs shows genuine consistency, and Richard Hannon's yard is firing. However, Boyfriend has zero wins from 5 starts on fast, dry ground—a critical weakness given today's conditions—and he'll need everything to align perfectly to trouble the market leaders.
Placed in 2 of last 3 races
TrackLab Insight
The market's joint-favourite sits on the highest rating (90) and boasts a 23% win rate over his last 13 races—roughly 1 in 4 outings. The concern: he also has zero wins from 4 starts on good ground and hasn't won in over 4 months, suggesting his recent form is concerning despite the form figures and official rating.
Best record at this trip (1 from 3)
TrackLab Insight
A 22% win rate from just 9 career races suggests genuine quality, and Shafdar showed he can win on his latest outing at Epsom 95 days ago. The major concern: he's never raced on dry ground in his life, making today a genuine step into the unknown—and the 21 days away since his last run leaves some doubt about sharpness.
Never raced on dry ground
TrackLab Insight
Three straight top-3 finishes over the past three months tell a story of a horse in genuine form right now, with a 33% win rate when conditions suit (good ground, 7f-1m). The problem: El Matador has never won on good-to-soft ground and is rated just 1lb above the field average, making him one of the least favoured runners despite clear form credentials.
3 straight top-3 finishes
TrackLab Insight
Among the most experienced runners with 18 career races, Ammes has proven dangerous on good ground (3 wins from 6) and is edging back to form with two recent 4th-place finishes. The issue: he's never won on good-to-firm or good-to-soft ground, and today's fast conditions sit on the wrong side of his preferences—making this a tougher test than his rating suggests.
Among the more experienced (18 career races)
TrackLab Insight
Rated 5lbs below the field average (83) and carrying the lowest rating, Thunder Wonder won at Musselburgh in June but has zero wins from 6 starts on good-to-firm ground and struggles on right-handed tracks. The 3rd-place finish at Musselburgh 32 days ago is his most recent form, yet even that can't overcome the structural mismatch between this horse's preferences and Goodwood's firm, right-handed surface.
Lowest rated, 5lbs below average
TrackLab Insight
This is the Goodwood specialist in the field—3 wins from 7 attempts here is nearly a 50% win rate at this track, and he's previously won this exact course and distance. The major red flag: he's been absent 126 days (longest absence in the field) and has never raced on dry ground, making his first outing back on firm turf a genuine gamble despite his stellar course record.
Course specialist (3 wins from 7 here)
Has won over this course and distance
Never raced on dry ground
Absent 126 days (longest in field)
TrackLab Insight
A genuinely experienced campaigner (21 races) with two top-level Newmarket wins to his name and a 25% win rate on good-to-firm ground—exactly today's conditions. The recent form is dire though: 11th and 8th at Newmarket in his last two starts, and at 55.0 odds the market has simply given up on this horse despite his underlying class credentials.
Among the more experienced (21 career races)
TrackLab Insight
Three straight top-3 finishes suggest this horse is hitting form at exactly the right moment, yet he's been wildly ignored by the market at 91.0 odds despite a rating 4lbs above the field average. The problem: Rock Of Cashel has never won on fast, dry ground (0 from 3) and struggles on right-handed tracks (0 from 8), making Goodwood's layout and firm surface a genuine concern despite recent promise.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
TrackLab Insight
A 25% win rate across 20 races marks Great Chieftain as one of the most consistent performers here, and he's posted a 40% win rate on good-to-firm ground (exactly today's conditions). The problem: he's yet to win at this trip, hasn't shown winning form in months (recent runs: 4-9-5), and is racing a new jockey-trainer combination with zero wins together.
Best record on this ground (2 from 5)
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced runner in the field by a distance (41 races) and a proven course-and-distance winner who still competes at a respectable 15% win rate. Yet Sweet Reward has never won on right-handed galloping tracks and is drifting badly in the market at 91.0, reflecting genuine concerns about whether a 9-year-old can still deliver on a day when youth matters.
Has won over this course and distance
Most experienced (41 runs, field avg 14)
TrackLab Insight
Lightly raced with just one career outing and no wins to his name, Thinthread is a genuine unknown stepping up significantly in class and experience. He's never raced on dry ground, making this an experimental assignment that feels more educational than winnable for a horse so short on evidence.
Never raced on dry ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)
TrackLab Insight
A 7-year-old with zero wins across six races and a 72-day absence that's broken form from an already thin profile makes this a genuine non-runner. The two placed finishes came months ago, and recent runs show deterioration rather than potential—at 101.0 odds, the market has correctly identified this horse as having nothing left to offer.
Relatively inexperienced (6 career races)
TrackLab Insight
A solid 22% win rate conceals the reality: First Ambition is plummeting at the ratings (84, 4lbs below average) and his recent form is alarming (6-19-7 in his last three). He's never raced on dry ground and has never won with current jockey Daniel Muscutt, making the 251.0 odds look like genuine value—albeit for avoiding this runner.
Never raced on dry ground
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The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.
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