Goodwood

Second in the market at 5.4, and her record at today's distance is genuinely eye-catching — winning half of her races at 1m3f to 1m4f, this trip clearly suits her. She has been off the track for around five months, but her trainer William Haggas sends horses out fit and ready, and the jockey-trainer partnership here wins roughly 1 in 4 races together. The question is whether a long break blunts what is otherwise a strong profile for this race.

She has been off the track for 245 days — the longest absence of any horse in today's field — and her best form has come over shorter distances than today's 1m4f. Six races in, the form has been up and down, and returning from such a lengthy break on an unfamiliar trip makes this a significant ask.

The editorial verdict makes her the top pick, and it is easy to see why: she has the best career win rate in the field by a distance — winning roughly 1 in every 2 races — she has already won over this exact course and distance, and she arrives fresh off a win at Windsor just 11 days ago. Yes, she is rated 12lbs below the field average and carries the lightest weight among the runners, but form this red-hot demands respect.

The key selling point here is that she has actually won over this course and distance — something very few in this field can claim. But after 195 days off the track and with a worrying record on anything resembling soft ground (just 1 win from 16 attempts on slower surfaces), the conditions today look squarely against her. She has been around the block 30 times and knows how to place, but winning feels a stretch right now.