Fontwell

Five races, no wins, no places, and a recent run at Kempton that saw him beaten nearly 70 lengths in sixth — the form is heading in the wrong direction. There is little in the data to suggest today's conditions, course, or distance represents a meaningful change of fortune for this horse.

The best win rate in the field on paper — roughly 1 in every 9 races — but his last outing at Stratford saw him beaten nearly 20 lengths in seventh, and his odds have drifted sharply from what looked like an early market opening. Normal conditions suit him well, but Fontwell's left-handed, sharp track is exactly the type where he has a poor record, winning none of his six attempts on similar layouts.

A key standout here: she is the only horse in this field to have won at today's distance of 2m 6f, making her course-proven in a way none of her rivals can match. Her overall record is modest at 1 win from 17 races, but that win came over this exact trip, and normal ground conditions are where she does her best work, winning 1 in every 9 races on it.

Carries the joint-lowest weight in the field, which gives a small theoretical advantage, but five races with no wins and no places — including a pulled-up effort and an eleventh-place finish — suggest that advantage is unlikely to be enough. Beaten 60 lengths in his most recent race 27 days ago, the raw form makes him very difficult to recommend.

The editorial verdict flags this 11-year-old as one to consider, noting he ran better than his eighth-place finish here at Fontwell 20 days ago suggests after a very long break from racing. He is the oldest horse in the field, rated 13 pounds below the average, and today is the first time this jockey and trainer have teamed up together — but if the verdict is right that there is hidden form to come out, he is at least worth a small interest at 19-1.

Fourteen races without a win makes Porridge the most winless horse in the field by experience, and two pulled-up efforts in her last three outings before a modest fourth here at Fontwell 36 days ago do little to inspire confidence. The odds of 41-1 reflect a market that has firmly made up its mind, and the data does not offer much reason to argue back.