Fontwell

Two near-misses in a row — second by less than a length at Southwell, then second by two lengths at Plumpton — paint the picture of a horse knocking hard on the door without quite breaking through in eight career races. Second in the market at 6.6, the punters clearly think this is the run where it finally converts, but it has yet to win and faces a step up in class against some more seasoned rivals.

Still looking for its first win after eight races, and it has already raced at Fontwell five times without success — so this course is familiar, but not a happy hunting ground. At just five years old it is the youngest in the field and still learning, but its consistent placing record shows it can be competitive without quite getting the job done.

Three wins from seven visits to Fontwell is a remarkable record at one track — the best course record in the field — and it finished second here just before its break, so the track clearly suits. The problem is it has been off the course for 149 days, the longest absence of any horse here, and it has never won on normal ground conditions, raising real questions about whether it returns at its peak.

Rated 14lbs below the field average — the biggest gap in the race — and carries the lightest weight as a result, but that rating gap reflects a modest career record of just 2 wins from 21 races. It has placed twice at Fontwell before and showed reasonable form with a second at Exeter last month, but it faces a steep climb to trouble the better-rated horses here.