Catterick

The most consistent horse in the field right now, having finished in the top three in each of its last three races — including a win at Newcastle — and it boasts the best record at today's trip, winning 2 from 3 at this distance. The low draw in stall one could be an advantage on this track, and first-claim jockey Poppy Scott has a small but established partnership with trainer Sir Mark Prescott.

The form book makes this horse look like a serious contender — winning 1 in every 3 races is the best record in this field, and a recent win at Doncaster 27 days ago shows it arrives in decent shape. It also has a strong record at today's distance, but those odds drifting sharply from a much shorter price is worth noting before getting too excited.

The standout fact here is that this is the only horse in the field who has already won over this course and distance at Catterick, going 2 from 5 here overall — a record nobody else can match today. It also carries the lowest weight in the race, 6lbs below the field average, which gives it a real physical advantage, though it has never won on soft ground and the jockey is riding this horse for the first time.

By far the most experienced horse in the field with 48 races under its belt — double the field average — but the current form is hard to fancy, with a 21-length fourth and an 11th place in its last two outings before that. The data shows it has never won on wet or soft ground and has never won on a right-handed sharp track like Catterick, which makes today look like a tough assignment.