Catterick

Still looking for a first win from seven races, but Taaklam has been placed in nearly half his career outings, including two consecutive third-place finishes before a narrow second last time out at Southwell — he keeps knocking on the door. The jockey and trainer have won together in both their previous races as a partnership, which is a small but notable detail. Like the favourite, he has never raced on slightly wet ground, so today is a step into the unknown for him too.

The Tunguska Event has the best win rate in this field — winning roughly 1 in 4 races — and crucially has the strongest record at this exact distance of six furlongs, winning twice from six attempts at this trip. He finished a close second last time out and won two runs before that, so the form is solid and consistent. He races in a visor and arrives with more evidence that this distance suits him than anyone else in the field.

Only two career races in, which makes this horse the least experienced in the field — there simply isn't much data to go on yet. Both runs have ended in fifth place, beaten well over four lengths each time, and like several rivals today he has never raced on slightly soft ground. With so little form to judge and a market price that has drifted sharply, punters are clearly not rushing to back him.

Lanarra carries the lowest weight in the race and is rated 14lbs below the field average, which reflects a significant gap in class compared to her rivals. The bigger concern is the 229-day absence — that's over seven months off the track, and she has a poor record on normal ground to boot. Her one win came at the lowest level of racing; stepping back into competition after such a long break against this company is a tough ask.