Carlisle
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David Allen IT Solutions Handicap Stakes
Starts in
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Turf track
All Runners — sorted by TrackLab Score
Good Value
TrackLab Insight
The second-highest rated horse in the field, but winless from six career races with his last six consecutive outings all coming up empty—most recently fourth and seventh. He represents the most puzzling angle here: talented on paper yet unable to translate that into a victory, making him a risky pick despite decent odds of 7.6.
2nd highest rated (OR 79)
Trainer Quotes
May 2026
"A very good two-year-old in France who lost his way, and he's had two starts for us. Sometimes it takes these French recruits a bit of racing in this country to adapt, but he could come back to something like his old form. 27-05-26"
Good Value
TrackLab Insight
Son is the market favourite at 6.5 odds but has won just once from 23 races—a desperately low 4% win rate—with his last six outings showing inconsistency (13th, 4th, 3rd, 7th, 9th, 2nd). His only strength at this trip is on good-to-firm ground (14% win rate), but he has zero wins on good ground, creating a cruel paradox where today's normal conditions sit between his comfort zones.
Market favourite (6.5)
Trainer Quotes
Apr 2024
"He ran on well and showed a bit of guts to finish fourth in the Greenham, which I was pleased with. He looked like he could have cried enough and finished six or seventh, but he stuck his neck out. We've taken him out of the Guineas and we're going to find something a little bit smaller for him. 29-04-24"
TrackLab Insight
Native Instinct won at Musselburgh 50 days ago and finished 2nd at Hamilton before that, showing upward trajectory and a solid 15% career win rate (2 from 13). He excels on soft ground and over shorter distances (33% win rate at 5-6½f), but this is a 7-furlong test on normal going—he may be stretching beyond his ideal parameters here.
Placed in 2 of last 3 races
Trainer Quotes
Jul 2025
"All of my horses needed their first run, and he put up a much better effort second time out when dropped back to 6f at Pontefract, where he hit the line well. He'd probably appreciate more juice in the ground than he raced on there, but he came out of it sound. He'll definitely build on that, although I'm not sure whether he'll stay at six furlongs or go up to a sharp seven furlongs. 02-07-25"
TrackLab Insight
Golden Strike boasts a 24% career win rate (4 from 17) and has an excellent record on good ground (40% at that surface), making him well-suited to normal conditions. He won at York just 88 days ago and sits closer to form than most, though his recent run of 5th at York (26 days ago) suggests he may not be at his peak right now.
Best record on this ground (2 from 4)
TrackLab Insight
Count Palatine has actually won over this course and distance, giving him genuine form credentials for this specific race. However, his recent form is patchy (14th at York just 68 days ago), and he hasn't shown consistent wins at this level, winning only 4 times from 30 races.
Has won over this course and distance
TrackLab Insight
The editorial favourite sits with a +1 rating but has finished 9th, 6th, and 11th in his last three outings—hardly the form that screams certainty. His strength lies on soft ground (43% win rate), but today's normal going removes that advantage, and he has zero wins from eight attempts on good ground. The market's confidence seems misplaced on today's conditions.
Among the more experienced (28 career races)
TrackLab Insight
Commander Of Life won at Doncaster just 27 days ago and has followed that with sound recent form (2nd at Newbury, 4th at Doncaster), placing him among the in-form horses in the field. With 5 wins from 44 races, he's a steady performer, though he's never won at Southwell in 12 attempts—not a direct concern at Carlisle, but it flags inconsistency.
One of the more successful in the field (5 career wins)
TrackLab Insight
King Of Fury just won back-to-back races at Southwell 23 and 45 days ago, but those successes on an artificial surface don't guarantee form on turf—he has no wins on soft or good ground and struggles on sharp tracks. He's a course specialist for Southwell, not Carlisle, making this a significant step away from where he thrives.
2nd highest rated (OR 79)
TrackLab Insight
Lord Capulet holds the best career record in the entire field at 26% (5 wins from 19 races), and critically he's won 3 of 8 races over exactly this distance. His last six races show two wins and two places, confirming recent form, though he hasn't raced in 41 days—the layoff matters less when form is this strong. He's the standout at the distance.
Best record at this trip (3 from 8)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
TrackLab Insight
Vince Lombardi is the lowest-rated horse (-5 vs field average), carries the least weight (127lbs), but hasn't raced in 189 days—by far the longest absence in the field. His last competitive outing 189 days ago was a 10th place, and with 5 wins from 34 races, he's essentially a Class 5 horse attempting Class 4. This layoff combined with a jump in class makes him a significant gamble.
Lowest rated, 4lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Absent 189 days (longest in field)
TrackLab Insight
Havana Prince has won 7 from 31 races (23% win rate) and showed three consecutive top-3 finishes earlier in his form, but he hasn't raced in 88 days and his last two outings at York were dire (14th and 16th). He excels on good ground over longer trips (38% win rate at 1m1-2f), not this 7-furlong test.
3 straight top-3 finishes
TrackLab Insight
Hunky Dory has drifted massively in the market (from 1.15 to 30.0) despite carrying a +3 rating advantage, suggesting the market knows something about his recent form. He won 33% of his races on standard ground over shorter distances, but this is 7 furlongs on normal going—his strengths don't align with today's conditions, and he has zero wins on good ground from five attempts.
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
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