The market favourite and second-highest rated in the field, but a stark warning sign looms: zero wins from five races despite finishing second or third four times. At just three years old there's youth on his side, but the pattern of near-misses — particularly against older, more experienced rivals at this distance — makes him a risky choice.
C. Horgan(5)
·
E. Bethell
· 4yo
· 10st 2lb
· OR 81
FormGround
24
Won 1 of last 5Loves this ground (33% win rate)
TrackLab Insight
Top-rated by four lengths with the best win rate in the field at 25%, but recent form is patchy — two third- and fifth-place finishes at York in the last 45 days suggest he's struggling to convert promise into wins. The real concern is his complete inability on left-handed galloping tracks: zero wins from five starts, which is a major problem at Carlisle.
Top rated by 4lbsBest record on this ground (1 from 3)Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
Trainer Quotes
Jul 2025
"He won first time out at Hamilton and looks really progressive. He had a slight hold up but will probably go to Thirsk for a 0-85 over 1m4f next. I love the idea of the Melrose Handicap at York and he'll be trained with the thought of getting into that on a nice mark. The 1m6f round there could be ideal for him, but whether he gets there remains to be seen. 02-07-25"
This 4-year-old is the form horse in the field: three consecutive top-two finishes with two wins in that run, and a 25% career win rate with 43% success over this distance. The concern is a lack of chemistry with his jockey — zero wins from three attempts together — which could prove costly in a close contest.
Won 0 of last 5Raced here beforeWon at this distance 2 times
TrackLab Insight
A reliable competitor with six wins from 31 races and a specific strength at this distance: two wins from seven attempts at 1m6f. The problem is she hasn't won on good ground in seven attempts, and she hasn't been in form lately — three mid-field finishes in the last three months with only one decent effort three months ago at this track.
Best record at this trip (2 from 7)
Trainer Quotes
May 2024
"She's done extremely well, putting on a serious amount of weight. I think she's put on 85kg since last season. She's a bull of a filly. How she did as well as she did at two and three is amazing really - she's a bit of an enigma. She has a super attitude. She's probably two or three weeks away from a run and I think we'll have some fun with her as she's very well-handicapped off 67. 30-05-24"
Won 1 of last 5Has won on this groundWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
A seven-year-old with genuine staying credentials — 33% win rate over 1m6f–2m distances — but he's completely fallen apart in the last three months, beaten by double-digit margins at Newcastle, Chester and Hamilton. His last win came on the all-weather at Newcastle over a year ago; on standard turf he's won twice from five attempts, but his current form is dire.
Won 0 of last 5Won here 1 timeHas won on this groundWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
A seven-year-old with one course win at Carlisle — making him one of the few proven winners here — but he's failed to win on standard ground in three attempts and hasn't shown consistent form lately. His last run was a decent third at Thirsk 18 days ago, but before that he was beaten by nearly 21 lengths at York.
Wearing blinkersWon 0 of last 5Won here 2 timesHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced runner in the field by a distance with 52 races under his belt, and he has a genuine course record here: two wins from four attempts at Carlisle. However, his recent form is poor — three fifth-place finishes in the last month — and he's struggled on good ground with zero wins from three attempts in that condition.
Course specialist (2 wins from 4 here)Most experienced (52 runs, field avg 24)
Rated 10 pounds below the field average with zero wins or places from six attempts, and his most recent form is a disaster: eighth place just 10 days ago following an 11th and a 9th. This is a horse completely out of his depth in a Class 4 handicap and should be dismissed.
Lowest rated, 10lbs below averageCarries lowest weight in field
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.