Ascot

The editorial pick and top-rated by 6lbs, but there's a red flag buried in the data: he's won just once in 11 races and has zero wins from his last five starts on normal ground (this race's conditions). His sole Class 2 victory came on good-to-firm ground at York in May, making the step up in class here risky despite the yard's excellent form.

The standout here: wins roughly 1 in 3 races (31% win rate, best in the field) and has the strongest record on normal ground at this trip (1 win from 4). Won two of his last three races, most recently at Thirsk 21 days ago, and his 50% win rate over 7f-1m distances makes him genuinely dangerous despite 9.0 odds.

Three straight top-3 finishes including two wins in his last three starts, but crucially both recent victories came at Irish tracks (Gowran Park and Cork). Ascot on turf is a different proposition, and his 12% career win rate suggests this improved form may not travel to England's premier course.

Stepping up 2 classes like First Legion, but with worse fundamentals: just 1 win from 11 races and zero wins from his last four starts including a 6th at Salisbury 23 days ago. The data shows he hasn't won on either good-to-firm or good-to-soft ground, and this normal-ground test looks beyond him.