The editorial pick and joint top-rated at 118, Christmas Day has won exactly half his eight races and finished top-three in all but one — that's the kind of consistency that wins Group races. He's the only horse here to have already won at York, finishing third here 97 days ago, and with Ryan Moore in the saddle and A P O'Brien's unmatched win rate (304 wins from 923 races), he's the horse to beat.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Trainer Quotes
Mar 2026
"He made good progress last season and showed a good attitude to win the Eyrefield on his final run. He'll start off in a Derby trial. 31-03-26"
The market favourite at 3.35 and the only horse here with a 60% win rate (winning 3 in every 5 races), Maltese Cross is second-rated at 115 and has three straight top-three finishes — but he's just 2.5 pounds below Christmas Day in the ratings despite being priced to lose. His last outing was a close second at Epsom 74 days ago, though the seven-week lay-off is the longest gap of his career.
3 straight top-3 finishesBest career win rate in field (1 in 2)Market favourite (3.35)
Joint top-rated at 116 with Christmas Day, Pierre Bonnard has won a Class 1 race at Newmarket and looks the obvious threat to the selection — but his form has been inconsistent, with a 29% win rate and a shocking 7th-place finish at Epsom just 52 days ago. The margin between his best and worst performances is wider than any other runner here, making him harder to predict than his rating suggests.
2nd highest rated (OR 116)
Trainer Quotes
Mar 2026
"He's a big, classy colt who won his last three races last year, including the Zetland at Newmarket and a Group 1 at Saint-Cloud. Christophe rode him for those two wins and was always super-impressed with him. He's being trained for Epsom and might have the two Irish trials [Ballysax and Derby Trial, both at Leopardstown] before it. He's very straightforward, very relaxed and very chilled, so you'd imagine he'd get a mile and a half well. Ryan rode him at the Curragh and thinks he's a horse who is going to get a mile and a half well. 31-03-26"
This 3-year-old is on fire with three straight wins and a remarkable 75% win rate from just four races — the highest in the field by some margin. He's stepping down three classes from his usual level, which is a huge advantage, though he's also the lowest-rated runner here at 104 and faces a genuine step up in quality against horses like Christmas Day and Maltese Cross.
Drops 3 classes from usual level3 straight top-3 finishes
Galiyan has been placed in two of his last three races, showing improving form, but his 25% win rate and rating of 106 puts him firmly in the chasing pack behind the top two. He's won at Chester — one of the toughest tracks in Britain — which proves he can handle demanding races, but he's drawn in stall 1 with no bias advantage at York (only 11% win rate from low draws).
Wearing blinkersWon 1 of last 5Loves this ground (33% win rate)
TrackLab Insight
Antigua is the weakest horse in the field by a significant margin — rated 21 pounds below the field average at 87, with just one win from six races. His odds have drifted sharply from 126 to 170, suggesting the market has lost faith, and his most recent run was a poor 12th place 52 days ago despite being trained by O'Brien's elite yard.
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.