Wolverhampton

The most compelling case against the favourite: Pints In Peace is the only horse in this field who has actually won over this course and this exact distance, scoring at Wolverhampton's 7f just two months ago. That makes this horse a genuine threat at a track where low-drawn horses have a clear edge — and sitting in stall 2 is ideal. The concern is that a fourth-place finish here just 28 days ago shows rivals have already had a chance to weigh this horse up.

The big question mark here is a seven-month absence — the longest layoff of any horse in this field — and this horse has never raced on normal ground before, so today brings two unknowns at once. There are flickers of ability in the form book, with a second and a third from four races, but zero wins and a dramatic drift in the betting suggest confidence is low. The jockey is in decent nick right now, winning nearly half his races over the past two weeks, but that may not be enough to overcome the ring rust.

The lowest-rated horse in the field by five pounds, and the form makes for grim reading: seven consecutive finishes in seventh or eighth place, including two recent outings at this very track where nothing went right. The jockey hasn't won from 22 rides in the past two weeks, and the trainer has only had one runner in that same period. The lighter weight is a small positive, but this horse needs something to change significantly to get involved here.