Windsor
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Starts in
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Turf track
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Good Value
TrackLab Insight
The nap of the race and the clear market leader, and it is easy to see why — he won at Bath just 10 days ago and has finished in the top three in three races on the spin. He is also the most experienced horse in the field by some distance, with 56 races under his belt compared to the field average of 24, and crucially he carries no penalty for that recent win. The one genuine concern is that all his wins have come on slower ground, and today's dry conditions are different to what he has thrived on before.
Most experienced (56 runs, field avg 24)
3 straight top-3 finishes
Market favourite (3.8)
TrackLab Insight
Has the best record on dry ground of anyone in this field — two wins from six races on that surface, a hit rate of roughly one in three — which stands out as a genuine edge today. She is also well suited by this distance, winning more than a quarter of her races at a mile and a quarter to a mile and a half. She has been a bit hit and miss lately but the conditions tick the right boxes for her.
Best record on this ground (2 from 6)
TrackLab Insight
Ten races into her career without a single win, though she did finish a close third at Lingfield three starts back, which is the best she has managed. Her most recent outing was a distant tenth, and she has been off the track for over four months, making this a tough ask in a competitive field.
Placed in 2 of last 3 races
TrackLab Insight
Won her last race at Wolverhampton three months ago and has been steadily building into that form, with four places from nine career races suggesting she is competitive rather than flash-in-the-pan. Like a few others here though, she has never raced on dry ground, so today's conditions are an unknown quantity for her. Drawn in stall 12, which is the worst draw at this course and distance based on historic data.
Never raced on dry ground
TrackLab Insight
The other horse in the field with a course and distance win to her name, and she has finished third in each of her last three races, showing she is in consistent form right now. Her strongest record on the ground stats is on fast, dry conditions — two wins from seven races on that surface — which maps well onto today. Draw two also puts her in the sweet spot of the low-draw advantage at Windsor.
Has won over this course and distance
3 straight top-3 finishes
TrackLab Insight
Has won two of her last three races, which sounds promising, but here is the catch: both wins came on very different conditions to today's dry ground, and she has never actually raced on a fast, dry surface in her career. That is a significant unknown, and it explains why she has drifted badly in betting from what looked like an inexplicably tight opening price.
Never raced on dry ground
Best career win rate in field (1 in 6)
TrackLab Insight
Fifty races into his career and still chasing only his second win — that single victory came over four years ago, and he has not come close since. Returning from six months off, and his record shows zero wins from 14 races on good ground, which is exactly what he faces today. Hard to make a case for him.
Trainer in best form (2 from 23 last 2wk)
TrackLab Insight
One of only two horses in the field who has already won over this course and distance, which is a genuine plus in his favour. He races again after just seven days, which is a quick turnaround, but he finished a respectable fourth at Lingfield last week and has solid form at a mile and a half. He also benefits from the best draw in the race — stall one — at a course where low draws have a clear historical advantage.
Has won over this course and distance
Runs again after just 7 days
TrackLab Insight
Five races, zero wins, zero places — this horse has yet to give its supporters even a placed finish to cling to. Like Hello Sweety and Belle Amie, he has never raced on dry ground, adding another layer of uncertainty. Jockey Saffie Osborne is in decent form at the moment, riding four winners from 21 rides in the last two weeks, but she has plenty of work to do here.
Never raced on dry ground
Jockey in best form (4 from 21 last 2wk)
TrackLab Insight
No wins and just one place from eleven races, and his recent form makes grim reading — eleventh, sixth, and eleventh in his last three outings. At 71-1 in the market, the bookmakers have a very clear view of his chances, and nothing in the data suggests they are wrong.
Placed in 2 of last 3 races
TrackLab Insight
The lowest-rated horse in the race, sitting 4lbs below the field average, and she has gone eight races without a win or even a place. Her last two outings were both distant tenths at Lingfield, so there is very little in the data to suggest she can reverse that trend today.
Lowest rated, 4lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
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The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.
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