Warwick

The editorial pick to win, and she arrives on the back of two solid efforts — a third at this very course 44 days ago, then a close second beaten just over a length at Fakenham. Carrying the lightest weight of any serious contender gives her an extra edge, and the jockey-trainer combination has clicked 14 times from 65 races together, which is a healthy record. Still to win in six races, but the upward curve is clear and this trip suits.

The only runner here with course experience from just 16 days ago, finishing fifth at Warwick over the same distance — so at least we know it handles the track. The problem is seven races without a single win or place, which is a difficult record to look past. Nothing in the data suggests a breakthrough is coming.

The market favourite, but this nine-year-old has won just once in 26 races — you have to admire the optimism. That one win did come at Exeter just over a month ago, and he followed it with a close second at the same track, so he arrives in decent nick. The concern is that his record on anything other than dry ground is poor, and he's never won at a course like Warwick — all of which makes his short price a little puzzling.

Zero wins from six races and a jockey partnering this horse for the very first time — it's hard to make a confident case here. The recent form hasn't been encouraging either, finishing 26 lengths back at Southwell before that and pulling up at Doncaster. Second-highest rated in the field on paper, but the rating hasn't translated into results yet.