Warwick

The one proven course winner in this field, having won right here at Warwick seven months ago — that local knowledge matters over a gruelling four-mile trip. The concern is straightforward: he hasn't raced in six months, and his two runs before that win were well beaten at Cheltenham and Chepstow. A fresh horse returning to a track he's already conquered is an interesting combination, but the rust is a real question mark.

He has the best win rate in this field — winning roughly 1 in every 4 races across his career — but his recent form doesn't back that up, finishing fifth in his last two outings. Crucially, he's never won on normal ground conditions like today, doing all his best work on softer surfaces. The jockey-trainer partnership is also brand new, which adds another layer of uncertainty.

The editorial verdict picks this horse over the favourite, noting that today's race is significantly less competitive than almost anything he's faced recently — he's been running in top-level company at Cheltenham and Punchestown, getting well beaten each time. Dropping into a much easier race is the key angle here, even if his overall record of just 1 win from 24 races doesn't inspire confidence on its own. The step down in class is the whole story with this one.

At 13 years old, Myth Buster is the oldest horse in the field by some distance — and he's been off the track for a full year, last seen being pulled up at Cheltenham. He has only raced six times in his career and has just one win to his name, so the data here is genuinely thin. Hard to make a strong case for him on paper, and the long absence makes this a very big ask.