Stratford

Has won over this course and distance before and wins roughly one in every ten races—a solid record in a modest field. At nine years old he knows his way around, but recent form has been pedestrian (5th, 4th, 6th) and the dry ground leaves him without a win in seven previous attempts on similar surfaces.

Never won in 16 races, but has finished in the frame in more than a third of outings—and crucially, has landed back-to-back seconds at this very track. The editorial verdict backs him as the clear ratings leader, sitting four to five pounds clear of the main dangers, and his three straight top-three finishes paint a horse finally finding form at the right time on fast ground.

One of the more successful in the field with three career wins, and crucially boasts an excellent record on good ground (27% win rate) over this exact distance range. The standout danger to Reteti, though a recent 7th at Market Rasen and the fall at Uttoxeter suggest he may still be finding his feet.

Finally broke through to win at Stratford just 65 days ago, but has never raced on dry ground before—this fast surface represents unexplored territory. The recent win came on different conditions, and that lack of experience on firm ground makes this a puzzle against horses proven here.