Newton Abbot

Only one win from 19 races across its career makes for modest reading, but this horse bounced back from a long absence to finish second by less than a length at Market Rasen just a month ago — the form that has the editorial verdict pointing its way. It is the freshest in terms of recent race fitness, and today's two-mile trip sits right in the range where it performs best.

The top-rated horse in the field by 4lbs and the only one with a strong record at both this trip and in these slightly soft conditions — two wins from seven on similar ground and two from four at this distance. That combination makes it stand out on paper, and its career win rate of roughly 1 in 4 is the best here. However, its odds drifted sharply from 1.1 to 6.5, and its last two completed runs were well-beaten finishes, so punters clearly have doubts despite the stats.

At ten years old, this is the most experienced horse in the field, but its last completed run was a pulled-up effort and it has not won for well over a year. Its record on wet or soft ground shows zero wins from four attempts, and Newton Abbot's sharp track layout is another area where it has historically struggled, making today's conditions look like they are working against it.

The lowest-rated horse in the field and carrying the least weight, which gives it a small advantage on paper in a race like this where every pound matters. It finished second here at Newton Abbot just 32 days ago, making it the only horse in the field with recent course form, though its record on soft ground is zero wins from three attempts which is a concern given today's conditions.