Newmarket

The only horse in the field who has won at this exact course and distance, which is a significant edge — Newmarket over 6 furlongs suits some horses more than others, and this one has already proved it can handle it. However, that win came in a much higher-class race than this, and the horse is stepping down three class levels after a string of poor results including a 6th last time out. The jockey-trainer combination has yet to win together in nine attempts, which doesn't add confidence.

One of the least experienced horses in the field with just 3 career races, and crucially has never raced on normal ground conditions before — today is an unknown. Back-to-back placed finishes in its last two outings show this horse is competitive, but it has yet to win and stepping onto unfamiliar ground adds a layer of uncertainty. Lightly raced horses can improve quickly, but there are more proven options in this field.

The most experienced horse in the field by some distance — 16 races compared to a field average of 8 — but that experience hasn't translated into recent form, with back-to-back 8th-place finishes in its last two outings. Drawn in stall 1, which is the least favourable position at Newmarket over this trip, where low draws have produced only an 11% win rate. Blinkers and a tongue strap are fitted, suggesting the trainer is trying something different to spark a response.

Won at Ayr less than eight months ago and followed it with two placed finishes, so there's a solid foundation here — but a well-beaten 5th last time out at Pontefract is the most recent evidence, and that's not encouraging. Best form has come on wet or muddy ground, and today's normal conditions are an unknown in terms of whether they'll bring out the best in this horse. First time the jockey and trainer have teamed up together.