Haydock

Runs again just three days after finishing fourth at Ripon, which is aggressive scheduling, and his record on soft ground is non-existent (0 wins from 5 starts). He does excel on good-to-soft (2 wins from 5), but that's a softer condition than what he faces today on this testing surface.

Two wins in three weeks have lifted this horse from nowhere into contention, but there's a major unknown: she's never raced on wet ground and her only win at this distance came on quick ground. The 4-year-old loves the 1m3f-1m4f range (33% win rate there) and her recent form is sharp, but asking her to deliver on an unfamiliar surface after just six days' rest is a big ask at this level.

Despite running just three days ago (second at Ripon, beaten by a whisker), this six-year-old carries light weight and has three top-three finishes in a row—genuine momentum. But his entire record is built on good and good-to-firm ground (3 wins from 14 and 3 wins from 14 respectively); he has zero wins on anything softer.

Despite the editorial rating him as the main threat, this seven-year-old has never tackled wet ground and his record on anything softer than good is dire: 0 wins from 6 starts on good-to-soft and softer conditions. A month between races leaves him short of match fitness, and while he won at Windsor recently, that came on fast ground—the opposite of what he'll face here.