Goodwood

Sharp and consistent: three top-three finishes in the last four races including a win at Pontefract, and raced only 19 days ago so is fresh and tuned up. Wins roughly 1 in 4 races and sits just ten pounds off Tierra Del Toro, making this one of the field's chief dangers.

Won impressively at Leopardstown — one of Ireland's top tracks — and had strung together three top-three finishes before a shocker at Ascot last time (14th, beaten 11 lengths). The drop in form is stark and unexplained, making this a risky proposition despite the win rate of roughly 1 in 4 races.

Editorial pick with the highest rating in the field (104) and eight pounds clear of his nearest rival on paper. Won four starts back and has recorded placed finishes in three of his last five races, though that ninth at Ascot 41 days ago is a concern. The ratings edge is genuine, but recent form is patchy for a horse still learning at three years old.

Lightly raced with just three career outings but winning one of them (33% win rate) — however, drops two classes here and has never raced on normal ground, both red flags. A 71-day absence after finishing second at Nottingham makes this a speculative proposition in unfamiliar conditions.