Ffos Las

The market favourite despite never having won a race in two outings — and having finished fourth both times. Today's wet ground is also unknown territory for this horse, so there are real questions to answer. The odds drifting sharply from 1.1 to 4.0 suggests those close to the horse have some doubts too.

The most compelling course record in the field — two wins at Ffos Las, both coming in the last 29 days, which means this horse has won here back-to-back and arrives in red-hot form. However, today's wet ground is a real concern: all three of its runs in these conditions have ended without a win. A horse on fire, but the weather could be its undoing.

This horse has finished second or third in five of its last six races, which makes it one of the most consistent placers in the field — but its jockey hasn't won a single race from 11 attempts with this trainer, which is worth noting. It has won at Ffos Las before, giving it course experience, but converting another near-miss into a victory has been the story of its career.

Eleven races, zero wins — but seven placed finishes show this horse is nearly always competitive without finding the extra gear to win. The bigger concern today is that it steps up two class levels compared to its recent runs, which is a significant jump in quality against horses it hasn't had to beat before.