Tolstoy

Where Tolstoy genuinely stands out is at York. On its home track, it has won 3 of 7 races — a 43% win rate that is genuinely impressive. That's a track where something clearly clicks. The horse also shows a clear preference for slightly soft, muddy ground, winning 3 of 5 races on such surfaces, a win rate of 60%. Its sweet spot appears to be middle distances between seven furlongs and a mile, where it has won 3 of 15 races. Trainer Brian Ellison, based in Norton in North Yorkshire, runs a productive yard that has already sent out 43 winners this season. The stable's most regular pilot has been Ben Robinson, who has ridden Tolstoy 11 times and won twice from those rides — a win rate of roughly 1 in 5.

For a horse of modest but dependable ability, Tolstoy's best days may lie in races back at York, especially if the ground softens up. That course profile is real enough to matter, and a return to slightly testing conditions could be exactly what this seven-year-old needs to end a lengthy losing streak.