Novello Lad

Across 25 career races, he has won 4 times and placed on 14 other occasions — a win rate of roughly 1 in every 6 races, or 16% if you prefer the number. That might not sound spectacular, but the placing record tells a fuller story: he finishes in the top three more often than not, which means he is nearly always competitive. His recent form backs that up — in his last six races he has won twice, finished second once, and third once. He is not a horse drifting out of form; if anything he looks like he is sharpening up.

His regular partner in the saddle is David Nolan, who has ridden him in 14 of his races and won 3 of them — a win rate of 21%, or just over 1 in 5. That is noticeably better than his overall career average, suggesting the partnership works. Midgley's yard has been in excellent shape this season, sending out 39 winners, and Novello Lad's recent activity fits the picture of a horse being placed with real confidence.

What makes him particularly interesting is how he wins. Midgley has explained that over longer distances he gets too keen and the race tempo rarely suits him, but drop him back to six furlongs and something clicks — he relaxes into the race, lets other horses do the front-running, and then his stamina kicks in exactly when rivals are starting to tire. It is a specific set of conditions, but when they come together, as they did this week at Doncaster, the result follows. Midgley also believes he may still be ahead of the handicapper, which is a significant thing for a trainer to say — it suggests there could be more wins to come before the assessors catch up with him. For a horse competing mostly at Class 5 level, that is an exciting thought.