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Coconut Bay

Seven years old and still going strong, Coconut Bay is the kind of horse that keeps turning up, keeps competing, and — just when you might start to wonder — keeps finding a way to win. Across 73 races, this horse has recorded 7 wins and 26 further places, meaning it has finished in the frame roughly 45 times out of 73, which is a remarkable level of consistency even if the wins themselves (roughly 1 in every 10 races) don't leap off the page.Based on TrackLab's AI analysis
Quick Facts
Age
7 years old
Sex
Mare
Colour
Bay
Father
Bated Breath
Mother
Tropicana Bay
Owner
Mrs Hugh Fraser
Rating
57

📊 Key Numbers

Career statistics for this horse
73
Career races
7
Wins
9.6%
Win rate
avg ~10%
35.6%
Place rate (top 3)
avg ~30%
1 days
Since last race

🔍 Full Analysis

TrackLab's AI-generated assessment based on career data and recent form
TrackLab's Detailed Breakdown
Auto-Generated

Most of Coconut Bay's career has been spent in Class 6 company — the bread-and-butter level of British racing, where reliable, competitive horses earn their keep week in, week out. Six of those seven wins have come at that level from 63 attempts, a 10% win rate that sounds modest until you consider the sheer volume of racing involved. Turning out 73 times takes toughness, and simply being competitive that often is something worth respecting.

The horse is trained by Tristan Davidson, based at Irthington in Cumbria — a northern yard that has sent out 21 winners already this season, suggesting a trainer who knows how to place his horses and get results. The most regular partnership in the saddle has been with jockey Jason Hart, who has ridden Coconut Bay 17 times and converted 3 of those into wins — that's roughly 1 in every 6 rides together, a better return than the horse's overall average, which hints at a genuine understanding between the two.

One detail that stands out is Coconut Bay's record on fast, dry ground: 2 wins from just 9 races at 22% — more than double the overall win rate. When the sun has been out and the ground is firm underfoot, this horse has clearly been in its element.

The most recent win came at Catterick Bridge on 9 July 2025, around 10 months ago, and the last six runs have read 11-3-8-7-7-7 — a sequence that suggests the wins are becoming harder to find, even if a third-place last time out shows the competitiveness hasn't gone anywhere. Raced just yesterday and still active, Coconut Bay is clearly a horse the yard believes in. With summer approaching and the ground likely to dry out, the conditions that suit this horse best may not be far away.

Strengths & Risks

What the data says works for and against this horse
✓ What works in their favour
Excellent record on good_to_firm ground: 2 wins from 9 starts (22%)
Course specialist at Catterick Bridge: 3 wins from 13 starts (23%)
⚠ What to watch out for
Poor record on soft ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
Yet to win at Newcastle in 13 attempts
Yet to win at Southwell in 7 attempts
Yet to win at Musselburgh in 6 attempts
Struggles on RH Sharp tracks: 0 wins from 8 starts

🎯 Where This Horse Thrives

Performance broken down by ground, distance, class, and track type
🌧 Ground Conditions
Good to firm (drying out)
Loves
Good (firm-ish)
Standard (all-weather)
Ok
Heavy (very wet)
Unknown
Standard to slow (all-weather)
Unknown
Soft (muddy)
Avoids
📏 Race Distance
7F – 1M
1M3F – 1M4F
Ok
1M6F – 2M
Unknown
5F – 6½F
Avoids
1M1F – 1M2F
Avoids
🏅 Competition Level
Class 4 (standard)
Unknown
Class 5 (entry-level)
Loves
Class 6 (grassroots)
Ok
🏟 Track Shape
Left-handed, tight turns
Loves
Left-handed, long straights
Ok
Right-handed, hilly
Unknown
Right-handed, tight turns
Avoids

📅 Recent Runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
11 May
11th
Catterick Bridge
7f – 1m · Good · 14 runners
5 May
3rd
Ayr
7f – 1m · Good_To_Firm · 9 runners
8 Apr
8th
Catterick Bridge
7f – 1m · Good · 14 runners
5 Nov
7th
Musselburgh
7f – 1m · Soft · 12 runners
18 Oct
7th
Catterick Bridge
7f – 1m · Good · 10 runners
9 Oct
7th
Ayr
7f – 1m · Heavy · 8 runners
1 Oct
6th
Catterick Bridge
7f – 1m · Soft · 13 runners
29 Aug
2nd
Thirsk
7f – 1m · Good · 11 runners
18 Aug
2nd
Catterick Bridge
7f – 1m · Good_To_Firm · 12 runners
8 Aug
6th
Musselburgh
7f – 1m · Good · 7 runners

🏇 Jockey Partnerships

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, sorted by rides together
17.6%
Win rate
3/17
Won / Rode
16.7%
Win rate
2/12
Won / Rode
Phil Dennis
0%
Win rate
0/6
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/4
Won / Rode
Rhys Elliott
0%
Win rate
0/3
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/3
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/3
Won / Rode
50%
Win rate
1/2
Won / Rode
Millie Wonnacott
50%
Win rate
1/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
Zak Wheatley
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
Louis Steward
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode

🏟 Track Record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast visitedWin rate
Wolverhampton
Galloping
18 2 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third, 13 other 21 Apr 11.1%
Catterick Bridge
Sharp
13 3 wins, 1 second, 9 other 11 May 23.1%
Newcastle
Galloping
13 1 second, 1 third, 11 other 6 Dec 0%
Ayr
Galloping
7 1 win, 4 thirds, 2 other 5 May 14.3%
Southwell
Galloping
7 2 seconds, 1 third, 4 other 30 Jan 0%
Musselburgh
Sharp
6 2 seconds, 1 third, 3 other 5 Nov 0%
Lingfield Park
Sharp
4 1 win, 1 third, 2 other 20 Aug 25%
Hamilton Park
Sharp
1 1 third 11 Jun 0%
Great Yarmouth
Galloping
1 1 other 10 Oct 0%
Carlisle
Undulating
1 1 other 1 Jun 0%
Ripon
Sharp
1 1 other 28 Aug 0%
Thirsk
Galloping
1 1 second 29 Aug 0%