What makes the recent picture starker is the drought since that Windsor win in July 2024. Bona Fortuna has not tasted victory in 26 months, going without a win across its last six races while accumulating a string of places. In that recent stretch, the pattern has been relentless second and sixth-place finishes—consistency without reward. The horse races for trainer Michael Appleby's Oakham yard, which has been busy with 71 winners this season, a sign of a well-run operation. At Class 4 level, where Bona Fortuna typically competes, it has managed just one win from seven races, a win rate of 14%, suggesting it struggles to beat horses at its current grade.
The mathematics are not kind. Two wins in 13 races, no victory for over two years, and a clear preference for conditions that do not arrive often enough. Bona Fortuna remains active—it raced just a day ago—but the form book reads like a horse that has found its level, or possibly dropped beneath it. Without a return to firm ground and a reversal of its recent run of outs, it is hard to see where the next win will come from.
| Course | Races | Results | Last visited | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton Undulating |
3 | 1 win, 1 second, 1 other | 1 Sep | 33.3% |
| York Galloping |
3 | 1 second, 2 other | 26 Jul | 0% |
| Nottingham Galloping |
2 | 1 second, 1 other | 2 Oct | 0% |
| Windsor Sharp |
1 | 1 win | 22 Jul | 100% |
| Newbury Galloping |
1 | 1 other | 29 Aug | 0% |
| Ayr Galloping |
1 | 1 third | 3 Oct | 0% |
| Epsom Downs Undulating |
1 | 1 second | 15 Aug | 0% |
| Hamilton Park Sharp |
1 | 1 third | 18 Jun | 0% |