The clear market favourite and the one our analyst tips to win — and the recent form backs that up, with a close third at Newmarket just 18 days ago beaten less than a length. Four races in, the horse has finished in the top three twice and appears to be improving with each outing. The one caveat is that, like most of this field, it has never raced on dry ground, so today's conditions are a new test.
Fresh (137 days off)Trainer in formWon 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
Trained by the powerful John and Thady Gosden yard, which has been firing on all cylinders recently — winning roughly 1 in 3 races over the past fortnight. The horse itself has only raced once, finishing third, but hasn't been seen on a track for over four months, so fitness after that long break is the key question. Never raced on dry ground either, so there are unknowns on both counts.
Never raced on dry groundLightly raced (1 career races)Trainer in best form (8 from 24 last 2wk)
This horse has the longest absence in the field by some distance — almost six months off since finishing ninth on its only career race. That single run produced a distant last-place finish beaten 18 lengths, and now it returns to a longer distance having never raced on dry ground. There is very little to work with here, and that is the honest truth.
Never raced on dry groundLightly raced (1 career races)Absent 191 days (longest in field)
First run (debut)Jockey in form (7 wins in 14 days)
TrackLab Insight
Making its racecourse debut today, so there is zero form to assess — just breeding and the fact that respected trainer Andrew Balding has chosen to run it. The parentage is eye-catching: by Nathaniel, the stallion who produced Enable, widely considered one of the greatest racehorses of recent times, and out of a mare by Oasis Dream. Debut runners are always a leap of faith, but the stable and bloodlines make this one worth watching.
Like stablemate Scarlet Legend, Spirit Dreamer is also making its debut today — so Andrew Balding saddles two first-time runners in the same race. The jockey, Jason Watson, hasn't had a winner in 23 rides over the past fortnight, which is worth noting. Bred by Australia out of a Fastnet Rock mare, the bloodlines suggest stamina, which could suit this 1m 4f trip.
Just one race to its name, a fifth-place finish at Newbury two weeks ago, so there is very little to judge this horse on. It has never raced on dry ground, which is a question mark shared by most of this field. The jockey, Edward Greatrex, has been in sharp form recently — winning 5 from 12 in the past fortnight — but this is his first time riding for trainer Marcus Tregoning, which adds a layer of uncertainty.
Never raced on dry groundLightly raced (1 career races)Jockey in best form (5 from 12 last 2wk)
The form reads 9-2 in reverse order — a promising second on her second run at Kempton, followed by a disappointing ninth at Newbury most recently, so the trajectory has gone the wrong way. She has never raced on dry ground, and today's distance of 1m 4f is a step up in trip, both of which are fresh questions to answer. Trainer Richard Hannon wins roughly 1 in 5 races at present, so the yard is in decent nick, but there is work to do.
Never raced on dry groundLightly raced (2 career races)
Two runs, finishing 12th and then 7th — so there is at least improvement between outings, though neither result puts this horse in contention. At odds of 36, the market sees little reason to get excited, and the data is too thin to argue otherwise. Never raced on dry ground and still to place in any career race, this horse needs a big step forward to feature here.
Never raced on dry groundLightly raced (2 career races)
Two races, two fifth-place finishes — and the margins tell a brutal story: beaten 46 lengths and 63 lengths respectively, which puts it well behind the pack on both occasions. Neither the jockey nor trainer have managed a win between them in the past fortnight, and their five races together have produced nothing yet. At odds of 151, the market is sending a very clear message.
Never raced on dry groundLightly raced (2 career races)
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.