Huntingdon

Joint second-highest rated alongside Roe And Co, and proven on normal ground — winning 3 from 11 on this type of surface. The worry is Huntingdon's right-handed, undulating track, where the data shows this horse has never won in five attempts. Consistent enough to place, but the course profile is a genuine red flag.

The most important fact here is simple: Indian Sunbird has won over this exact course and distance before, which sets it apart from most of the field. The catch is a 186-day absence — the longest layoff of any horse in this race — and the last run at Huntingdon was a fifth-place finish, not the winning one. Interesting course credentials, but six months off the track is a serious question mark.

Officially rated 8lbs below the field average and carrying the lightest weight, Braganza Bay looks outgunned on paper — but has an extraordinary record at Huntingdon, winning 2 from 3 visits here, a win rate that dwarfs anything it has managed elsewhere. Sam Twiston-Davies is in good form right now, winning 3 from 7 in the past fortnight, and this horse also has the best record of any runner at this trip. The rating gap is a hurdle, but the course and distance credentials are impossible to ignore.

Crucially, this is one of the only course winners in the field — and at 10 years old with 26 races under its belt, Moviddy knows its way around a racecourse. The problem is a pulled-up effort last time out and a record that shows it has never won at Huntingdon in six attempts, which somewhat undermines the course form angle. Hard to get excited given the recent form.