Bath

The only horse in the field with actual race experience, and that counts for a lot in a race full of first-timers — finishing second at Leicester just nine days ago gives Top Cote a clear edge in know-how. The market agrees: this is the race favourite at odds of around 2.88, making it comfortably the best-fancied runner. The one mild concern is that the trainer has gone winless across 13 runners in the last two weeks.

No race experience yet, but the standout factor here is the trainer: Archie Watson has won 6 of his last 20 runners over the past fortnight, the best recent form of any trainer in this field. The editorial verdict flags this horse as a newcomer of note, and Watson's yard clearly has horses in good order right now. That said, drawing stall 13 — the widest berth in the race — is a significant disadvantage at Bath over 5f, where high draws have a poor historical record.

Finished ninth here at Bath on debut 17 days ago, which gives her course experience at least, even if the result was unimpressive. Today's dry conditions are something she has not faced before, so this is effectively another unknown layer on top of an already thin record. Jockey Kieran O'Neill has had a difficult run recently — no wins from 32 rides in the last two weeks — which does little to inspire confidence.

First-time runner stepping into the unknown, so there is nothing concrete to go on from a form perspective. Sire Ardad was a fast two-year-old himself and tends to pass that early pace on to his offspring, which suits this 5f sprint well. The wide draw in stall 12 is a disadvantage based on Bath's historical trends at this distance.