Water Of Leith

The real story emerges when you look at what suits him. Water Of Leith is a course specialist at Carlisle, where he has won 2 of his 5 races there—a 40% win rate that stands well above his career average. He is also a ground lover: on normal conditions he wins roughly 1 in every 4 to 5 races (4 wins from 18), and on fast, dry ground his record improves to 1 in 6 (2 wins from 12). Last winning was at Wolverhampton in mid-March, four months ago now. With jockey Paul Mulrennan, who rides him most often, the partnership works: Mulrennan has steered him to 5 wins from 31 races together, a 16% win rate that outpaces his overall form. At Class 5 level—lower-grade company—Water Of Leith has found success in 1 of every 6 races (5 wins from 30), showing he is still capable of mixing it when the race is right. The trainer knows his horse intimately; the horse has quirks, demands his own way to the start, and will enter the stalls without a rider—small details that make the difference between a win and a non-event. When conditions favour him and he is in the right frame of mind, Water Of Leith can still find his way to the front.