Tuckmill

Start with Naas. Two wins from just three races at that track is a remarkable return — winning two-thirds of the time anywhere is the kind of record that makes trainers plan their whole season around a venue. For context, most horses at this level are happy to win 1 race in every 6, so Tuckmill's record at Naas suggests the track simply suits this horse in a way that's hard to fully explain but impossible to ignore. The first career win came there on 31 March 2022, and the attachment has clearly stuck.

Then there's the ground. On slightly soft turf — when there's a bit of moisture in it but it hasn't turned heavy — Tuckmill has won 2 from 6 races, a 33% win rate that comfortably outstrips its overall average. That's useful information, because it means the team at Peter Fahey's yard in Monasterevin, Co. Kildare, aren't just hoping for the best when the rain arrives — they're expecting something. Fahey's operation has been in decent form this season, sending out 14 winners, so this is a yard that knows what it's doing.

The most recent win came at Down Royal on 1 November 2024 — now 18 months ago — which is the obvious challenge to the Tuckmill story. The last 6 races have produced nothing better than a sixth-place finish, and two of those runs don't even show a completion. At 10 years old, the question any honest racing fan would ask is whether the best days are behind it.

What keeps things interesting is the jockey combination. Jake Coen has ridden Tuckmill to 2 wins from 7 races together — a win rate of 29%, nearly 1 in every 3 rides — which is a significantly better return than any other rider has managed. Tuckmill raced just yesterday and is clearly still an active part of the yard's plans. Whether another win is coming depends on soft ground, a track it likes, and a jockey who seems to unlock something in this horse.