Tuckmill

The most striking pattern is Tuckmill's performance at Naas, the Irish track where it has won two of only three races there. That is a win rate of 67 percent at that single course, a remarkable concentration of form that suggests the track, the distance, or something about the setup suits it perfectly. It also prefers ground with a bit of give in it — when conditions are slightly soft, Tuckmill wins roughly one in three races, compared to its overall average. These are the kinds of insights that matter in racing: a horse that is ordinary in general may be genuinely useful when conditions and location align.

Tuckmill's form has flatlined recently. It has not won in six races, though it did place twice. Its last victory came on 1 November 2024 at Down Royal — nearly two years ago now — suggesting age or declining ability may be catching up. Yet the horse is still racing, most recently just a day ago, which speaks either to the hope that another win is possible or simply that the horse keeps finding races to run in.

Jake Coen has ridden it seven times, winning twice, a win rate substantially better than its career average. Peter Fahey's yard, based in County Kildare, is a modest operation — it has sent out 14 winners this season — and Tuckmill fits the profile of a useful, reliable older horse that may continue to win occasionally in the right circumstances, particularly back at Naas if that course comes around again.