Solanna

His recent form tells that story clearly. In his last six races, he finished fifth, sixth, first, second, third, and fourth — a wild swing from success back down. That win two months ago at Ffos Las looks like the moment it all came together, but the runs since have been forgettable. John Butler, who trains him at Newmarket, has been candid about this pattern. When Solanna was younger, he reeled off three wins in a row and his rating climbed from 47 to 68 in a hurry. But then everything stalled. The trainer has mentioned being disappointed with recent efforts and admitted a break for schooling may have thrown him off rhythm, yet lately he has come back into form at home, suggesting another good run might be round the corner.

The real clue to Solanna lies in ground conditions. On wet or muddy ground, he is a different proposition entirely — he has won 5 of his 15 races on slow going, a win rate of roughly 1 in every 3 starts. On faster, drier ground, he struggles. Put him at tracks like Ffos Las when rain is forecast, and the odds shift in his favour. Daniel Muscutt, his most frequent rider, has won on him 5 times from 13 races together, a 38% win rate that suggests they understand each other. At Class 5 level — the lower rungs of British racing — Solanna has managed just 1 win from 23 races, implying he has drifted into territory where he is out of his depth. That one victory at Ffos Las suggests he still knows how to win when the conditions and the race suit him. The trick is finding the right spot.