Rare Change

The ground matters enormously here. On fast, dry ground, Rare Change has won 2 of just 4 races — a 50% win rate that is frankly extraordinary. That's flipping a coin and coming up heads. On any other surface, the picture is far more modest. If you see this horse running on a dry summer's day, that is the version to take seriously.

The move up in class has been the real test. Rare Change has run six times in Class 2 races — among the best races in Britain — and hasn't won any of them. Zero from six. But the manner of those runs matters, because the horse got to that level by winning at York in a way that genuinely impressed. Jockey Hector Crouch said afterwards that the horse "needed to" step up and "did it really well" — not a fluke, but a deliberate graduation to tougher company.

The most recent win came at Pontefract on 22 June 2025, and that's now gone 11 months without a winner, with the last six results reading 9-3-12-12-6-12. That third place in the mix is a reminder that the ability hasn't vanished — but consistency remains elusive. Finley Marsh rides most often and has won 1 of their 8 races together, roughly 1 in 8, which reflects the horse's overall profile: present, competitive sometimes, but not yet dependable.

Rare Change raced just yesterday, so this is a horse right in the thick of a season. The ingredients for a win are there — the right trainer, the right ground, the right day. It just hasn't all come together recently.