Northwest Passage

The win came at a distance Northwest Passage seems to suit: between 1 mile 1 furlong and 1 mile 2 furlongs, the horse has won 1 of 9 races—an 11 percent win rate that's the best it can manage at any distance. Elsewhere, the record is blank. That stretch of ground appears to be where the engines run warmest. Trainer Ivan Furtado, based at Wiseton in South Yorkshire, has a prolific yard this season with 43 winners already, but Northwest Passage remains a stubborn problem to solve. The horse keeps running—most recently just a day ago—and regularly finds a place, with 8 minor placings to its name, suggesting it's competitive enough to stay in the frame but not quite sharp enough to win.

What's striking is the drought since September. Eleven months without a victory is a long time, and the most recent six races tell a bleak story: fifth, fifth, second (closest it has come), fifth, tenth, and fifth again. That consistency at the lower end of the placings—four fifth-place finishes in the last six outings—suggests Northwest Passage is doing enough to stay in races but fading when it matters. At Class 4 level, the horse has yet to land a win in 7 attempts, implying it may need to drop in grade or find exactly the right set of circumstances to strike again. This is a horse that showed it could win, but is struggling to prove it was anything more than a one-off.