Moab

The overall numbers are modest: 1 win and 9 places from 23 races, a win rate of just 4% — roughly 1 in every 23 outings. But there is a more encouraging story buried in the distance figures. Over longer trips of a mile and three quarters to two miles, Moab has won 1 from 8 races, a 12% win rate, or roughly 1 in every 8. That is three times better than the career average, and it suggests the horse is a stayer at heart — one who genuinely needs the extra ground to show its best.

What is harder to explain is the record at Class 4 level, which is where Moab competes most often. Zero wins from 9 races at that level, despite the overall career win coming somewhere in the mix, suggests the horse can find the right contest elusive even when conditions look suitable. Regular jockey Paul O'Brien has not yet found the combination that works, with 0 wins from 5 rides together.

Recent form tells a more positive story than the win column does. In the last six races Moab has finished 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 3rd — reading from newest to oldest, that one 10th-place finish aside, this is a horse that is consistently in the mix without quite getting its nose in front. A horse that finishes second or third regularly is frustrating to follow, but it is also one that has not lost its appetite for racing. With the Southwell win now seven months in the past and the horse racing as recently as yesterday, the question for the team at West Lockinge is simple: can they find the race where all those near-misses finally add up to something.