Justicialism

The overall numbers are modest: 2 wins and 6 places from 26 races, a win rate of roughly 1 in every 13. But zoom in on the partnership with jockey Shane Fitzgerald and something more encouraging appears — together they have won 2 from 9 races, which works out at just over 1 in every 4. That is a meaningfully better return than the horse's overall record suggests, and it hints that the combination of horse and rider genuinely suits each other.

Recent form is mixed but not without hope. The last six runs read 2-2-blank-8-18-14 from most recent back — two consecutive placed efforts at the sharp end of the field are sandwiched between some less inspiring days out. Finishing second twice in a row, with a race just one day ago, suggests Justicialism is at least in decent enough shape to be competitive. The question, as always, is whether a win is just around the corner or whether the horse has simply found its level as a very reliable nearly-horse.

Trainer Noel C Kelly operates out of Draperstown in Co. Derry and has had a productive season — 14 winners sent out, which for a yard of this size represents genuine momentum. The first of Justicialism's two career wins came at Punchestown in January 2022, followed swiftly by that Naas success the following month. Two wins in the space of four weeks suggested a horse hitting its stride. What happened after is simply the nature of racing — form comes and goes, and chasing it back is the oldest story in the sport.