Jamaican Storm

What's interesting is the gap between Jamaican Storm's performance at Newcastle and everywhere else. Trainer Bryan Smart's yard, based at Sutton Bank in North Yorkshire, has clearly identified this as a horse that runs well on familiar ground, and the data supports it. At the distances the horse seems to prefer — between 1 mile 1 furlong and 1 mile 2 furlongs — it has won 1 of 6 races, a 17 percent win rate that stands out from its overall 9 percent record. The pattern suggests a horse that knows its way around Newcastle but struggles when asked to perform at the higher levels elsewhere. In eight races at Class 5, the most competitive races it has entered, Jamaican Storm has not won once.

Paul Mulrennan, the jockey who has ridden it most often, has steered the horse in 13 of its races and won once together. Recent form shows two wins in the last six races, which is promising — a record of 1-6-3-9-4-1 that includes that Newcastle victory last week. With the horse still active and recently back in the winner's circle, there is reason to think Jamaican Storm might be hitting a patch of better form. Smart's yard has had 18 winners this season, so there is clearly quality in the operation. For Jamaican Storm, the lesson is clear: keep it at Newcastle, keep it at the right distance, and it will do its job.