Harswell River

The most encouraging sign is what happens when jockey Mark Winn gets the leg up. In six races together, they have won once — a win rate of roughly 1 in 6 — which is substantially better than Harswell River's overall form. That combination has not raced recently, but the partnership is worth keeping an eye on. Over distances between seven furlongs and a mile, where the horse seems to run its best races, it has won 1 from 11 — a 9% win rate — suggesting there is a distance sweet spot waiting to be found more consistently. Trainer Roger Fell, based at Nawton in North Yorkshire, continues to campaign the horse actively, and the yard has been in good form this season with 25 winners already.

The worry is the timeline. It has been 11 months since that win at Redcar, and the last six races have brought nothing but a second place and a couple of fifth-place finishes mixed in with some struggles. Harswell River raced just a day ago, so the trainer clearly believes there is more to come. Whether that belief pays off depends partly on the jockey, partly on getting back to a track and distance where things click — and perhaps mostly on a horse that has shown it can win, but has yet to prove it can do so more than once.