Glenfinnan

On his best ground — normal conditions, not too wet, not too firm — he wins around 1 in every 3 races, taking 4 of 13 runs on that surface. That is a genuinely strong figure, and it points to something his trainer Michael Dods has talked about openly: Glenfinnan needs conditions in his favour. A fast track, like the one at Goodwood when he ran in the Stewards' Cup, found him out badly. But when the ground rides at a normal pace, he is a different animal. Jockey Oisin Murphy made the same point after his last win at Sandown in August 2024, noting that the ground not being too quick probably helped him, and that when Murphy switched him out looking for a run, it always felt like the horse would get to the front. He did, and he galloped out strongly beyond the line.

Dods has also noted that Glenfinnan finished a creditable fifth in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot — one of the most competitive sprint races of the season — and that a slight ease in conditions would likely bring out the best in him. The horse is by Harry Angel, a stallion whose offspring tend to appreciate a little cut in the ground, and that bloodline might explain why firm conditions at Goodwood proved one step too far.

The less comfortable truth is that Glenfinnan has not won in his last 6 races, and his most recent runs — finishing seventh, seventh, and fifteenth — suggest he is finding things tough. He raced just a day ago, so the team are clearly keeping him busy and looking for the right opportunity. His regular jockey Connor Beasley has ridden him 11 times together for just 1 win, which shows how rare his good days have become. The pieces are there for a decent performance — the right track, the right ground, a strong pace to aim at — but they do not come together often enough.