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Bay Dream Believer

There's something quietly brilliant about a small horse that keeps turning up and finding a way to win. Bay Dream Believer has raced 45 times and come out on top on 6 occasions — a win rate of around 1 in every 7 or 8 races — and at seven years old, she's still very much in the thick of it, having raced just yesterday.Based on TrackLab's AI analysis
Quick Facts
Age
7 years old
Sex
Mare
Colour
Bay
Father
New Bay
Mother
Arabescatta
Owner
Ursa Major Racing Ltd & Partner
Rating
59

📊 Key Numbers

Career statistics for this horse
45
Career races
6
Wins
13.3%
Win rate
avg ~10%
33.3%
Place rate (top 3)
avg ~30%
1 days
Since last race

🔍 Full Analysis

TrackLab's AI-generated assessment based on career data and recent form
TrackLab's Detailed Breakdown
Auto-Generated

The numbers that really stand out belong to Ripon racecourse in North Yorkshire. Three wins from just 7 races there works out to a win rate of 43%, meaning she wins almost every other time she lines up on that track. That is a remarkable record at any level of the sport. Her most recent victory came at Ripon as recently as August 2025, so this is no faded love affair — the place simply suits her. Ground conditions matter too: on fast, dry ground she has won 4 of 11 races, a rate of just over 1 in 3. That's a proper pattern, and one worth knowing about heading into summer.

Her trainer, Mark Walford, operates out of Sheriff Hutton in North Yorkshire and has sent out 35 winners already this season, so this is a yard in good form. He has spoken warmly about Bay Dream Believer on more than one occasion, describing her as having "one of the biggest hearts in training" despite being what he calls "only a little pony." After her Ripon win he admitted the race was something of a gamble given she carried a penalty, but said she came through it well. The affection is genuine, and it's the kind of thing that tells you a horse is looked after and understood.

Her recent form — finishing 5th, 10th, 13th, 9th, 5th and 2nd in her last six runs — reads like a horse hunting for the right opportunity rather than one going backwards. That second-place finish in particular suggests she's not far away. Most of her wins, five of the six, have come at the entry level of the sport, which is simply the category of race that suits her — she's a consistent performer at that level rather than a horse chasing glory at the top of the game.

With summer approaching, dry ground on the forecast, and Ripon meetings coming up on the calendar, the ingredients for another win are taking shape. Bay Dream Believer might be small, but she keeps showing up — and at her favourite track in her favourite conditions, that's worth paying attention to.

Strengths & Risks

What the data says works for and against this horse
✓ What works in their favour
Excellent record on good_to_firm ground: 4 wins from 11 starts (36%)
Course specialist at Ripon: 3 wins from 7 starts (43%)
⚠ What to watch out for
Poor record on soft ground: 0 wins from 8 starts
Poor record on standard ground: 0 wins from 7 starts
Poor record on good_to_soft ground: 0 wins from 6 starts
Yet to win at Beverley in 6 attempts
Struggles on RH Undulating tracks: 0 wins from 7 starts
Struggles on LH Undulating tracks: 0 wins from 5 starts

🎯 Where This Horse Thrives

Performance broken down by ground, distance, class, and track type
🌧 Ground Conditions
Good to firm (drying out)
Loves
Good (firm-ish)
Heavy (very wet)
Unknown
Standard to slow (all-weather)
Unknown
Soft (muddy)
Avoids
Standard (all-weather)
Avoids
Good to soft (some give)
Avoids
📏 Race Distance
1M1F – 1M2F
7F – 1M
Unknown
1M3F – 1M4F
Ok
1M6F – 2M
Unknown
🏅 Competition Level
Class 3 (mid-level)
Unknown
Class 4 (standard)
Unknown
Class 5 (entry-level)
Avoids
Class 6 (grassroots)
Loves
🏟 Track Shape
Right-handed, tight turns
Loves
Left-handed, long straights
Ok
Right-handed, hilly
Avoids
Left-handed, hilly
Avoids

📅 Recent Runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
17 May
5th
Ripon
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 14 runners
18 Apr
10th
Nottingham
1m3f – 1m4f · Good · 15 runners
28 Mar
13th
Doncaster
1m3f – 1m4f · Good_To_Soft · 15 runners
6 Nov
9th
Newcastle
1m3f – 1m4f · Standard · 12 runners
23 Oct
5th
Nottingham
1m3f – 1m4f · Heavy · 16 runners
4 Oct
2nd
Redcar
1m3f – 1m4f · Good_To_Soft · 10 runners
17 Sep
6th
Beverley
1m1f – 1m2f · Soft · 14 runners
4 Sep
7th
Southwell
1m3f – 1m4f · Standard · 7 runners
26 Aug
🏆 Won
Ripon
1m1f – 1m2f · Good_To_Firm · 8 runners
16 Aug
🏆 Won
Ripon
1m1f – 1m2f · Good_To_Firm · 9 runners

🏇 Jockey Partnerships

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, sorted by rides together
Rhys Elliott
16.7%
Win rate
2/12
Won / Rode
22.2%
Win rate
2/9
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/5
Won / Rode
Andrew Mullen Current Jockey
33.3%
Win rate
1/3
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
100%
Win rate
1/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
Kyle McHugh(5)
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
Miss Alice Cooke
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
Alex Jary
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
Mia Nicholls
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode

🏟 Track Record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast visitedWin rate
Ripon
Sharp
7 3 wins, 1 second, 3 other 17 May 42.9%
Beverley
Undulating
6 3 thirds, 3 other 17 Sep 0%
Pontefract
Undulating
4 1 second, 3 other 23 Jun 0%
Newcastle
Galloping
4 4 other 6 Nov 0%
Hamilton Park
Sharp
4 1 second, 3 other 16 May 0%
Doncaster
Galloping
3 1 win, 2 other 28 Mar 33.3%
Redcar
Galloping
3 2 seconds, 1 other 4 Oct 0%
Nottingham
Galloping
3 3 other 18 Apr 0%
Southwell
Galloping
2 2 other 4 Sep 0%
Wolverhampton
Galloping
2 2 other 24 Oct 0%
Wetherby
Galloping
1 1 win 16 May 100%
Leicester
Sharp
1 1 win 11 Aug 100%
Salisbury
Undulating
1 1 other 12 Jun 0%
Windsor
Sharp
1 1 second 10 Oct 0%
Epsom Downs
Undulating
1 1 other 25 Sep 0%
Ffos Las
Galloping
1 1 other 25 Jul 0%
Newbury
Galloping
1 1 other 13 Aug 0%