Barleybrown

The broader picture is 5 wins from 39 races across a career — roughly 1 in every 8 — which tells you Barleybrown is a decent, consistent performer without being exceptional. He has placed 13 times on top of those wins, meaning he has finished in the frame in nearly half his races. He earns his keep. He is trained by Ruth Carr at her yard in Stillington, North Yorkshire, a small operation that has quietly punched out 63 winners this season alone, which is a serious number. Carr knows her horses, and she has been candid about where Barleybrown stands: last year was genuinely his best, four wins all at Newcastle, but those results have nudged him up the ratings, and he now needs to be a touch better than before just to keep winning.

At six years old he is in his prime, and he comes alive on normal ground conditions — 4 wins from 16 races on a standard surface, winning 1 in every 4, compared to a far patchier record elsewhere. James Sullivan has been in the saddle for 17 of his 39 races and has ridden him to 2 of his wins, though the partnership has not quite fired in recent months. His last six races have brought finishes of fourth, fourth, third, seventh, sixth, sixth — not disgraced, but nothing to get excited about either.

The horse has been given a break since December and is only just returning to action. The honest assessment from the trainer is that the bar has been raised slightly and Barleybrown will need to find a bit more. Whether Newcastle can unlock that again is the question. History suggests it just might.