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Ash Wednesday

Ash Wednesday has all the hallmarks of a horse that knows exactly where it wins best—and it is Wolverhampton. The five-year-old has turned that Berkshire track into something of a personal playground, winning 4 of its 6 races there, a phenomenal win rate that suggests the horse simply thrives on Wolverhampton's peculiar surface and conditions. When you line that up against a career record of 6 wins from 25 races overall—a respectable one in every four—you see a horse whose ability clusters heavily in one place. That is the kind of pattern that jumps out to anyone who knows how to read form.Based on TrackLab's AI analysis
Quick Facts
Age
5 years old
Sex
Gelding
Colour
Grey
Father
Outstrip
Mother
Medoras Childe
Owner
Wetumpka Racing
Rating
72

📊 Key Numbers

Career statistics for this horse
25
Career races
6
Wins
24%
Win rate
avg ~10%
44%
Place rate (top 3)
avg ~30%
1 days
Since last race

🔍 Full Analysis

TrackLab's AI-generated assessment based on career data and recent form
TrackLab's Detailed Breakdown
Auto-Generated

The last 16 months tell a harder story. Ash Wednesday's last win came at Southwell back in April 2025, and since then it has been a long stretch without a victory. Six races in succession without a win is the kind of drought that tests a horse's the yard, though the form is not entirely barren—there have been placings mixed in, including a second place not so long ago. The recent outing a day ago resulted in a 12th-place finish, which suggests the horse is still racing but struggling to find the spark that made those Wolverhampton victories possible.

What is interesting is the partnership with jockey Jack Mitchell, who has ridden Ash Wednesday to 3 wins from 8 races together, a 38% win rate that is notably higher than the horse's overall average. That kind of gap between a jockey's record on a horse and the horse's general form can mean something—either Mitchell gets the best from the animal, or he has been given the rides when conditions were favourable. Trainer Heather Main's yard at Kingston Lisle, Oxfordshire, has been sending out winners this season, so the infrastructure is there. The question now is whether Ash Wednesday can find its way back to Wolverhampton and rediscover the form that once made it so dangerous on familiar ground.

Strengths & Risks

What the data says works for and against this horse
✓ What works in their favour
Excellent record on standard ground: 6 wins from 13 starts (46%)
Course specialist at Wolverhampton: 4 wins from 6 starts (67%)
Effective partnership with Jack Mitchell: 38% win rate together
⚠ What to watch out for
Poor record on good_to_firm ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
Poor record on standard_to_slow ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
Poor record on good ground: 0 wins from 3 starts

🎯 Where This Horse Thrives

Performance broken down by ground, distance, class, and track type
🌧 Ground Conditions
Standard (all-weather)
Loves
Soft (muddy)
Unknown
Good to soft (some give)
Unknown
Good to firm (drying out)
Avoids
Standard to slow (all-weather)
Avoids
Good (firm-ish)
Avoids
📏 Race Distance
7F – 1M
1M1F – 1M2F
Unknown
5F – 6½F
Avoids
🏅 Competition Level
Class 4 (standard)
Ok
Class 5 (entry-level)
Class 6 (grassroots)
Loves
🏟 Track Shape
Left-handed, long straights
Loves
Left-handed, hilly
Unknown
Right-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Left-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Right-handed, hilly
Unknown
Right-handed, long straights
Avoids

📅 Recent Runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
27 Jul
12th
Southwell
7f – 1m · Standard · 12 runners
30 Apr
7th
Kempton Park
1m1f – 1m2f · Standard_To_Slow · 11 runners
8 Apr
3rd
Kempton Park
7f – 1m · Standard_To_Slow · 12 runners
21 Mar
2nd
Southwell
7f – 1m · Standard · 12 runners
11 Mar
5th
Southwell
7f – 1m · Standard · 9 runners
19 Jan
8th
Wolverhampton
7f – 1m · Standard · 9 runners
25 Jul
15th
York
7f – 1m · Good_To_Soft · 22 runners
8 Jun
4th
Goodwood
7f – 1m · Soft · 10 runners
18 May
11th
Newmarket
7f – 1m · Good_To_Firm · 13 runners
4 Apr
🏆 Won
Southwell
7f – 1m · Standard · 9 runners

🏇 Jockey Partnerships

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, sorted by rides together
37.5%
Win rate
3/8
Won / Rode
66.7%
Win rate
2/3
Won / Rode
Daniel Muscutt Current Jockey
33.3%
Win rate
1/3
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode

🏟 Track Record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast visitedWin rate
Wolverhampton
Galloping
6 4 wins, 1 second, 1 other 19 Jan 66.7%
Southwell
Galloping
6 2 wins, 1 second, 3 other 27 Jul 33.3%
Kempton Park
Galloping
3 2 thirds, 1 other 30 Apr 0%
Lingfield Park
Sharp
2 2 other 30 May 0%
Brighton
Undulating
1 1 third 17 Sep 0%
Newbury
Galloping
1 1 other 17 May 0%
Windsor
Sharp
1 1 other 29 Apr 0%
York
Galloping
1 1 other 25 Jul 0%
Leicester
Sharp
1 1 other 24 Jul 0%
Goodwood
Undulating
1 1 other 8 Jun 0%
Newmarket
Galloping
1 1 other 18 May 0%
Bath
Undulating
1 1 other 17 Jul 0%